Valuation: multiple expansion is thin ice
With the S&P 500 near 22 to 23 times forward earnings, ROIC against WACC and unit economics are the checks that matter.
The S&P 500 forward P/E (~22–23x) sits well above 5- and 10-year averages, so multiple expansion is thin ice; sector dispersion remains wide (e.g., U.S. software EV/EBITDA medians in the high 20s), making ROIC-vs-WACC and unit-economics sanity checks non-negotiable.
Next steps
- Triangulate value with EV/EBITDA, DCF (implied ERP), and payback on invested capital.
- Build scenario trees that flex pricing power and cost of capital.
- For private comps, haircut public multiples for liquidity and scale, and align to cohort LTV/CAC and net retention.
Informational content only. Not investment advice.