Sector theses and case studies: Our thinking, frameworks, and operating angles.
Sector theses and case studies: Our thinking, frameworks, and operating angles.
Sector theses and case studies: Our thinking, frameworks, and operating angles.
M&A Deals:
Microsoft → Activision Blizzard (2023, $68.7B all-cash).
Closed Oct 13, 2023 after global antitrust review; the UK CMA approved a restructured deal where Microsoft divested Activision’s cloud-streaming rights to Ubisoft. Price was $95/share, ~45% premium to the last pre-announcement close. Strategic aim: own mobile via King and deepen content/IP for Xbox/Game Pass.
Exxon Mobil → Pioneer Natural Resources (2024, $59.5B all-stock).
Closed May 3, 2024. Creates the largest Permian unconventional operator with ~1.4M net acres and ~16 Bboe resource. Management guides to ~$2B/yr average synergies over the next decade (⅔ recovery uplift, ⅓ CapEx/OpEx).
Only pay a premium when you can turn it into hard, near-term synergies (cost, cross-sell, or capability); otherwise it’s just expensive scale.
M&A Deals:
Microsoft → Activision Blizzard (2023, $68.7B all-cash).
Closed Oct 13, 2023 after global antitrust review; the UK CMA approved a restructured deal where Microsoft divested Activision’s cloud-streaming rights to Ubisoft. Price was $95/share, ~45% premium to the last pre-announcement close. Strategic aim: own mobile via King and deepen content/IP for Xbox/Game Pass.
Exxon Mobil → Pioneer Natural Resources (2024, $59.5B all-stock).
Closed May 3, 2024. Creates the largest Permian unconventional operator with ~1.4M net acres and ~16 Bboe resource. Management guides to ~$2B/yr average synergies over the next decade (⅔ recovery uplift, ⅓ CapEx/OpEx).
Only pay a premium when you can turn it into hard, near-term synergies (cost, cross-sell, or capability); otherwise it’s just expensive scale.
M&A Deals:
Microsoft → Activision Blizzard (2023, $68.7B all-cash).
Closed Oct 13, 2023 after global antitrust review; the UK CMA approved a restructured deal where Microsoft divested Activision’s cloud-streaming rights to Ubisoft. Price was $95/share, ~45% premium to the last pre-announcement close. Strategic aim: own mobile via King and deepen content/IP for Xbox/Game Pass.
Exxon Mobil → Pioneer Natural Resources (2024, $59.5B all-stock).
Closed May 3, 2024. Creates the largest Permian unconventional operator with ~1.4M net acres and ~16 Bboe resource. Management guides to ~$2B/yr average synergies over the next decade (⅔ recovery uplift, ⅓ CapEx/OpEx).
Only pay a premium when you can turn it into hard, near-term synergies (cost, cross-sell, or capability); otherwise it’s just expensive scale.
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LBO Deals
Blackstone ↔ Hilton (2007 take-private, ~$26B).
~78% debt / ~22% equity at entry; IPO in 2013 and staged sell-downs through 2018 produced >$14B profit, often cited as one of PE’s most profitable hospitality LBOs. Lesson: high leverage + operational playbook + cycle timing.
Michael Dell & Silver Lake ↔ Dell (2013, $24.9B go-private).
Financed with sponsor/founder equity, $2B Microsoft loan, and ~$11–12B in bank debt; later returned to public markets in 2018 via VMware tracking-stock transaction. Lesson: complex capital structure can enable multi-step value creation.
Most of the return comes from EBITDA growth and steady deleveraging, focus on resilient cash flow and ops, not hoping for multiple expansion.
LBO Deals
Blackstone ↔ Hilton (2007 take-private, ~$26B).
~78% debt / ~22% equity at entry; IPO in 2013 and staged sell-downs through 2018 produced >$14B profit, often cited as one of PE’s most profitable hospitality LBOs. Lesson: high leverage + operational playbook + cycle timing.
Michael Dell & Silver Lake ↔ Dell (2013, $24.9B go-private).
Financed with sponsor/founder equity, $2B Microsoft loan, and ~$11–12B in bank debt; later returned to public markets in 2018 via VMware tracking-stock transaction. Lesson: complex capital structure can enable multi-step value creation.
Most of the return comes from EBITDA growth and steady deleveraging, focus on resilient cash flow and ops, not hoping for multiple expansion.
LBO Deals
Blackstone ↔ Hilton (2007 take-private, ~$26B).
~78% debt / ~22% equity at entry; IPO in 2013 and staged sell-downs through 2018 produced >$14B profit, often cited as one of PE’s most profitable hospitality LBOs. Lesson: high leverage + operational playbook + cycle timing.
Michael Dell & Silver Lake ↔ Dell (2013, $24.9B go-private).
Financed with sponsor/founder equity, $2B Microsoft loan, and ~$11–12B in bank debt; later returned to public markets in 2018 via VMware tracking-stock transaction. Lesson: complex capital structure can enable multi-step value creation.
Most of the return comes from EBITDA growth and steady deleveraging, focus on resilient cash flow and ops, not hoping for multiple expansion.
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Valuation:
Premium Quality Multiple:
Ferrari trades at ~31–32x LTM EV/EBITDA with luxury-like economics. EBITDA margin ~38% and net margin ~22%, supporting a scarcity premium.
Premium Quality Multiple:
Ferrari trades at ~31–32x LTM EV/EBITDA with luxury-like economics. EBITDA margin ~38% and net margin ~22%, supporting a scarcity premium.
Hypergrowth Multiple:
NVIDIA’s scale/growth has supported ~50x trailing P/E and ~39x forward (early 2025 snapshot), useful as a comp when growth durability and reinvestment runway are exceptional.
Hypergrowth Multiple:
NVIDIA’s scale/growth has supported ~50x trailing P/E and ~39x forward (early 2025 snapshot), useful as a comp when growth durability and reinvestment runway are exceptional.
Transaction Anchors:
Disney’s $71B cash/stock purchase of 21st Century Fox remains a clear precedent for content scale vs. DTC strategy, handy when valuing media IP libraries and DTC pivots.
Transaction Anchors:
Disney’s $71B cash/stock purchase of 21st Century Fox remains a clear precedent for content scale vs. DTC strategy, handy when valuing media IP libraries and DTC pivots.
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Key KPIs
What we measure and why it’s predictive.
Market Map
Players, segments, and value chain.
Risks & Mitigants
What could break and how we protect.
Key KPIs
What we measure and why it’s predictive.
Market Map
Players, segments, and value chain.
Risks & Mitigants
What could break and how we protect.
Key KPIs
What we measure and why it’s predictive.
Market Map
Players, segments, and value chain.
Risks & Mitigants
What could break and how we protect.
Data Thesis (Why Data Moats Matter)
Scale → Product Edge → Monetization.
Data Thesis (Why Data Moats Matter)
Scale → Product Edge → Monetization.
Data Thesis (Why Data Moats Matter)
Scale → Product Edge → Monetization.
• Engagement flywheel:
Spotify’s Discover Weekly drove >2.3B hours of listening in its first five years—evidence that proprietary behavioral data compounds personalization and retention.
• Engagement flywheel:
Spotify’s Discover Weekly drove >2.3B hours of listening in its first five years—evidence that proprietary behavioral data compounds personalization and retention.
• Engagement flywheel:
Spotify’s Discover Weekly drove >2.3B hours of listening in its first five years—evidence that proprietary behavioral data compounds personalization and retention.
• Data gravity & sharing:
Snowflake’s Data Cloud centers on cross-company data collaboration—network effects that raise switching costs and expand wallet share.
• Data gravity & sharing:
Snowflake’s Data Cloud centers on cross-company data collaboration—network effects that raise switching costs and expand wallet share.
• Data gravity & sharing:
Snowflake’s Data Cloud centers on cross-company data collaboration—network effects that raise switching costs and expand wallet share.
• Telemetry → platform expansion:
Datadog grows with multi-product adoption and rising $100k+ customers (≈3,770 as of Q1–Q2’25), showing how accumulated telemetry unlocks adjacent SKUs (security, APM, AI obs).
• Telemetry → platform expansion:
Datadog grows with multi-product adoption and rising $100k+ customers (≈3,770 as of Q1–Q2’25), showing how accumulated telemetry unlocks adjacent SKUs (security, APM, AI obs).
• Telemetry → platform expansion:
Datadog grows with multi-product adoption and rising $100k+ customers (≈3,770 as of Q1–Q2’25), showing how accumulated telemetry unlocks adjacent SKUs (security, APM, AI obs).
• Edge case advantage:
Tesla leverages billions of real-world fleet miles to train autonomy system, classic proprietary dataset moat.
• Edge case advantage:
Tesla leverages billions of real-world fleet miles to train autonomy system, classic proprietary dataset moat.
• Edge case advantage:
Tesla leverages billions of real-world fleet miles to train autonomy system, classic proprietary dataset moat.
Talk to the Firm
Discuss this Thesis
Some content may be illustrative or anonymized for confidentiality.
Talk to the Firm
Discuss this Thesis
Some content may be illustrative or anonymized for confidentiality.
Talk to the Firm
Discuss this Thesis
Some content may be illustrative or anonymized for confidentiality.
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